Prashant Dhakal
I spent the last week going through NEPSE data from 2023–2026 and want to share my analysis comparing hydropower and banking sector IPOs. The results were quite interesting.
Listing Premiums (Average over 3 years)
| Sector | Avg Oversubscription | Avg Listing Gain | 6-month Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydropower | 87x | +42% | +18% |
| Commercial Banks | 24x | +15% | +6% |
| Development Banks | 31x | +21% | +9% |
| Finance Companies | 18x | +11% | -2% |
Key Findings
1. Hydropower IPOs are oversubscribed 3.5x more than banking IPOs on average
2. Listing day gains for hydropower are nearly 3x higher
3. However, hydropower stocks tend to be more volatile at 6 months post-listing
4. Banking stocks show more stable but lower long-term returns
Why hydropower outperforms on listing day
- Higher retail investor FOMO due to perceived scarcity
- Government energy policy drives positive sentiment
- PPAs provide revenue visibility that investors value highly
Would be great to hear your experiences. Have you noticed different patterns?
This is excellent research. The 6-month return comparison is especially important because most retail investors focus only on listing day gains. I would love to see this broken down further by project capacity (run-of-river vs reservoir) — I suspect reservoir projects have better 6-month returns.
Great work Prashant. One thing I would add — the microfinance sector has been consistently outperforming both in your table. D-class MFIs in the last 2 years averaged around 65x oversubscription and 55% listing gain. Worth including in the next analysis.
Both great suggestions. I deliberately excluded microfinance this time because the sample size was smaller, but Kamala you are right — MFIs deserve their own dedicated analysis. I will post a follow-up next week covering microfinance vs insurance sectors.
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